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A
Successful Performance
Successful application of your learning looks like this
As you begin to apply what you’ve learned, you should have a good idea of what success looks like.
A SUCCESSFUL
PERFORMANCE
I successfully use what-if models to study uncertain situations. I...
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Create a mathematical model that let me perform a what-if analysis
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Determine and understand the relationships between the set of likely results and
possible values
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Am able to ultimately make a decision or formulate a strategy on the basis of my
what-if modeling
D
emonstrate Your Understanding
Apply it and show you know in context!
1. You are planning a family vacation and must decide whether to drive or fly. Use your hometown
and choose a destination of your choice. Analyze the changing nature of gas prices and airline
tickets while considering the size of the family to be in the range of 2 to 5. Assess both options and
ultimately provide a recommendation of which mode of transportation to use.
2. Suppose you work for an organization with multiple offices and need to distribute a limited number
of desks to them in a fair manner. The current staff sizes fluctuate due to turnover and there are
possibilities of current branches closing as well as new ones opening. Create a model for distributing
the desks and then perform what-if analysis to see how the possible changes might affect the results.
3. Suppose you had to move in with two of your classmates. Develop a model to determine compatibility
between individuals and then perform what-if analysis to assess the potential problems with this
joint living experiment.
4. Two individuals are both charged with a serious crime. The trials are separate and the defendants
cannot communicate with each other. If convicted each would receive a 10 year sentence. The
prosecutors offer each one the same deal, testify against the other person and they will be sentenced
to 20 years while receive a lighter sentence of 5 years.
H
ardest Problem
How hard
can
it be? Can you still use what you’ve learned?
Based on the Models, the Methodologies, and the Demonstrate Your Understanding (DYU) problems in
this activity, create the
hardest
problem you can. Start with the hardest DYU problem in this experience
and by contrasting and comparing it with the other DYU problems, play “What if” with the different
conditions and parameters in the various problems.
Can you still solve the problem? If so, solve it. If not, explain why not.
What are the conditions and parameters that make a problem where you must use what-if modeling a
difficult problem to solve?
9.3 What-If Modeling