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A
Successful Performance
Successful application of your learning looks like this
As you begin to apply what you’ve learned, you should have a good idea of what success looks like.
A SUCCESSFUL
PERFORMANCE
I
can produce reliable simulation results. I...
●
Perform an analysis of each model output and the collective set of outputs
●
Am able to explain outputs based on the inputs, the simulation program, and the
context of situation being simulated
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Make plans for validating the simulation in a real-life situation
D
emonstrate Your Understanding
Apply it and show you know in context!
1. Find or create appropriate distributions for the number of people in an elevator at any given time and
the weight of an individual person. Then simulate the total weight in an elevator at any given time
and use it to design the specifications for carrying capacity when designing an elevator.
2. Suppose you are on a game show where you are given three doors from which to choose. Behind
one door is the grand prize, a brand new car. Behind the other two doors are gag prizes, donkeys.
You choose one of the three doors and the host then reveals on of the two doors you did not pick,
revealing a donkey. He then asks you if you want to switch doors or not. What should you do? What
is your initial strategy for this game and why? Create a simulation for the game and run it with
the following strategies: stay, switch, and stay half the time/switch half the time. Then state what
strategy you think is best and why?
3. Suppose you have any non-normal distribution (e.g. uniform or skewed) and take random samples
of size 30 from it. For each sample calculate the mean and record it. Run the simulation for at least
1000 iterations. Then look at the distribution of the sample means and describe its shape and mean.
Try a different population distribution and record the results. Repeat again with larger and smaller
sample sizes and record the results.
H
ardest Problem
How hard
can
it be? Can you still use what you’ve learned?
Based on the Models, the Methodologies, and the Demonstrate Your Understanding (DYU) problems in
this activity, create the
hardest
problem you can. Start with the hardest DYU problem in this experience
and by contrasting and comparing it with the other DYU problems, play “What if” with the different
conditions and parameters in the various problems.
Can you still solve the problem? If so, solve it. If not, explain why not.
What are the conditions and parameters that make a problemwhere youmust create and/or use simulations
a difficult problem to solve?
9.4 Simulation